Market Outlook
August 18, 2016
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are likely to open in positive note tracking SGX Nifty and Global
BSE Sensex
(0.2)
(59)
28,005
markets.
Nifty
(0.2)
(19)
8,624
The modestly higher close on US market came following the release of the minutes
Mid Cap
0.7
88
12,912
of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting, which suggested that officials were mixed
Small Cap
0.6
67
12,280
about the outlook for monetary policy.
Bankex
0.1
22
21,837
The European markets were slightly lower Wednesday amid consternation about the
upcoming Federal Reserve minutes.
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Dow Jones
0.1
22
18,574
Indian markets fell for a second consecutive session Wednesday as IT stocks
Nasdaq
0.0
2
5,229
continued to bleed in reaction to Royal Bank of Scotland's decision cancelling a
$300m contract with Infosys. Further, weak global cues also dented investor
FTSE
(0.5)
(35)
6,859
sentiment as investors looked ahead to minutes of the Fed's July policy meeting,
Nikkei
0.9
149
16,746
scheduled for release tonight, for clues on the probability of the next Fed rate hike.
Hang Seng
(0.5)
(111)
22,800
Shanghai Com
(0.0)
(0)
3,110
News Analysis & Result Review
Result Review: Radico Khaitan
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Advances
1,452
883
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Declines
1,272
703
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Unchanged
174
74
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Refer Pg5 onwards
Volumes (` Cr)
Top Picks
BSE
2,849
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
NSE
19,018
(`)
(`)
(%)
Amara Raja
Auto/Auto Ancillary
Buy
928
1,076
16.0
HCL Tech
IT
Buy
786
1,000
27.2
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
LIC Housing
Financials
Accumulate
548
582
6.2
FII
1,273
6,477
37,360
Bharat Electronics
Capital Goods
Accumulate
1,240
1,414
14.0
MFs
(21)
(194)
8,594
Navkar Corporation Others
Buy
193
265
37.3
More Top Picks on Pg3
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Key Upcoming Events
Bfutilitie
584
13.5
Previous
Consensus
Jubilant
438
12.9
Date
Region
Event Description
Reading
Expectations
Deltacorp
138
9.1
Aug 18
US
Initial Jobless claims
266.0
265.0
Indianb
217
6.0
Aug 18 Euro Zone
Euro Zone Consumer Confidence
(7.9)
--
Gati
147
5.4
Aug 23
US
New Home sales
592.0
579.0
Aug 23 Germany
PMI Services
54.4
--
Aug 24 Germany PMI Manufacturing
53.8
--
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
6.(
More Events on Pg4
Jppower
5
(8.0)
Jpinfratec
8
(7.2)
Bharatfin
745
(4.9)
Star
1,059
(4.7)
Feldvr
18
(4.5)
As on August 16, 2016
Market Outlook
August 18, 2016
Result Review:
Radico Khaitan - Buy - CMP:`101 TP: `125 Upside:23%
For 1QFY2017, Radico Khaitan’s results have come in line with our estimates.
Revenues raised 3% YoY to `430cr, which is marginally higher than our estimate
of `427cr. On the operating front, the company’s margin improved by 201bp YoY
to 13.1%, primarily on account of a favourable shift in the product mix from
regular to premium products which command higher margins. The company
reported a ~25% YoY rise in its net profit for the quarter to `21.5cr on the back of
a strong operating performance and lower taxes.
The company has not performed well in the last two years due to increasing raw
material costs (ENA is a key raw material) and with it not receiving significant price
hikes from various states. We expect the company to perform well going forward
in anticipation of better price hikes and healthy sales growth in premium products.
This would result in an overall improvement in the operating margin of the
company. We currently have a POSITIVE view on the stock.
Economic and Political News
Government extends subsidy scheme to solar-powered cold storages
Government expects tax revenues to increase after GST roll-out
Government may pay `34,600cr as arrears in August salary: India Ratings
and Research
Corporate News
Tata Motors hikes Tiago prices by up to `6,000
DHFL to raise up to `10,000cr via NCDs
Indiabulls Housing Finance raises `800cr via NCDs
Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate
Tata Power Co Ltd Consol - Aug 23, 2016
Particulars (` cr)
1QFY17E
1QFY16
y-o-y (%)
4QFY16
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
9,275
9,235
0.4
9,375
(1.1)
EBITDA
1,995
2,181
(8.5)
1,913
4.3
EBITDA margin (%)
21.5
23.6
20.4
Net profit
341
241
41.3
360
(5.3)
Market Outlook
August 18, 2016
Top Picks ★★★★★
Large Cap
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
To outpace battery industry growth due to better technological
Amara Raja Batteries
15,844
928
1,076
16.0
products leading to market share gains in both the automotive
OEM and replacement segments.
Uptick in defense capex by government, coupled with BELs
Bharat Electronics
29,771
1,240
1,414
14.0
strong market positioning, indicate good times ahead for BEL.
HCL Tech
1,10,892
786
1,000
27.2
Stock is trading at attractive valuations & factors all bad news.
Strong visibility for a robust 20% earnings trajectory, coupled
HDFC Bank
3,12,455
1,234
1,350
9.4
with high quality of earnings on account of high quality retail
business and strategic focus on highly rated corporates.
Back on the growth trend, expect a long term growth of 14% to
Infosys
2,37,366
1,033
1,370
32.6
be a US$20bn in FY2020.
Continues to grow its retail loan book at healthy pace with
LIC Housing Fin.
27,658
548
582
6.2
improvement in asset quality. Expect LICHF to post a healthy
loan book which is likely to reflect in a strong earnings growth.
Strong market positioning within the domestic AC markets to
Voltas
12,170
368
407
10.7
continue, EMP business set to revive
Source: Company, Angel Research
Mid Cap
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Among the top 4 players in the consumer durables segment.
Bajaj Electricals
2,519
249
277
11.1
Improved profitability backed by turn around in E&P segment.
Strong order book lends earnings visibility.
Favourable outlook for the AC industry to augur well for
Cooling products business which is out pacing the market
Blue Star
4,661
489
527
7.8
growth. EMPPAC division's profitability to improve once
operating environment turns around.
Strong loan growth backed by diversified loan portfolio and
Equitas Holdings
5,876
175
235
34.1
adequate CAR. ROE & ROA likely to remain decent as risk of
dilution remains low. Attractive valuations considering growth.
Expectations of above average monsoon augurs well for
Goodyear India
1,245
540
631
16.9
Goodyear India as it derives ~50% of its turnover from farm
tyre segment.
Commencement of new projects, downtrend in the interest rate
IL&FS Transport
2,234
68
93
37.0
cycle, to lead to stock re-rating
Economic recovery to have favourable impact on advertising &
Jagran Prakashan
6,113
187
205
9.6
circulation revenue growth. Further, the acquisition of a radio business
(Radio City) would also boost the company`s revenue growth.
Speedier execution and speedier sales, strong revenue visibility
Mahindra Lifespace
1,773
432
554
28.2
in short-to-long run, attractive valuations
Massive capacity expansion along with rail advantage at ICD as
Navkar Corporation
2,753
193
265
37.3
well CFS augurs well for the company
Earnings boost on back of stable material prices and favourable
Radico Khaitan
1,348
101
125
23.4
pricing environment. Valuation discount to peers provides
additional comfort
Strong brands and distribution network would boost growth
Siyaram Silk Mills
1,003
1,070
1,347
25.9
going ahead. Stock currently trades at an inexpensive valuation.
Market leadership in Hindi news genre and no. 2 viewership
TV Today Network
1,816
304
363
19.2
ranking in English news genre, exit from the radio business, and
anticipated growth in ad spends by corporates to benefit the stock.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
August 18, 2016
Key Upcoming Events
Result Calendar
Date
Company
August 18, 2016
India Cements, Transport Corporation of India
August 20, 2016
TVS Srichakra
August 23, 2016
Tata Power Co.
August 26, 2016
Tata Motors
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Global economic events release calendar
Bloomberg Data
Date
Time
Country Event Description
Unit
Period
Last Reported Estimated
Aug 18, 2016
6:00 PM
US
Initial Jobless claims
ThousandsAug 13
266.00
265.00
7:30 PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value Aug A
(7.90)
Aug 23, 2016
2:30 PM Euro Zone
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
% Jul F
0.20
0.20
7:30 PM
US
New home sales
Thousands
Jul
592.00
577.00
11:30 AM Germany
GDP nsa (YoY)
% Change 2Q F
3.10
1:00 PM Germany
PMI Services
Value Aug P
54.40
Aug 24, 2016
1:00 PM Germany
PMI Manufacturing
Value Aug P
53.80
7:30 PM
US
Existing home sales
Million
Jul
5.57
5.55
Aug 26, 2016
6:00 PM
US
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change 2Q S
1.20
1.10
2:00 PM
UK
GDP (YoY)
% Change 2Q P
2.20
Aug 30, 2016
7:30 PM
US
Consumer ConfidenceS.A./ 1985=100 Aug
97.30
97.00
Aug 31, 2016
1:25 PM Germany Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands Aug
(7.00)
Sep 01, 2016
2:00 PM
UK
PMI Manufacturing
Value Aug
48.20
6:30 AM
China
PMI Manufacturing
Value Aug
49.90
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
August 18, 2016
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
9.0
12.0
8.3
9.9
7.8
7.7
7.9
10.0
8.0
7.5
7.6
7.2
8.0
6.3
6.7
6.6
6.7
7.0
6.4
6.0
3.7
5.8
4.0
6.0
1.9
2.1
1.1
2.0
0.3
5.0
-
4.0
(2.0)
(0.9)
(1.3)
(1.6)
(4.0)
3.0
(3.4)
(6.0)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
7.0
6.1
54.0
5.8
5.8
5.6
5.7
5.5
6.0
5.4
5.3
5.0
4.8
52.0
5.0
4.4
3.7
4.0
50.0
3.0
48.0
2.0
46.0
1.0
-
44.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
5.0
7.50
0.0
7.00
(5.0)
6.50
6.00
(10.0)
5.50
(15.0)
5.00
(20.0)
4.50
(25.0)
4.00
(30.0)
3.50
(35.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
August 18, 2016
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
6.7
6.0
5.3
4.9
4.2
4.0
3.2
2.2
1.3
1.4
2.0
1.2
0.1
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(1.2)
(6.0)
(5.4)
(0.2)
(8.0)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2016 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
10.0
7.5
8.0
6.5
6.0
4.9
4.4
4.0
3.0
2.4
1.9
1.5
2.0
1.1
0.6
0.5
(3.8)
(1.8)
-
(2.0)
(4.0)
(6.0)
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Market Outlook
August 18, 2016
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
59,324
5.0
17.3
22.6
Russia
Micex
1,969
1.7
2.7
15.3
India
Nifty
8,624
1.0
9.3
1.2
China
Shanghai Composite
3,110
2.5
10.9
(20.7)
South Africa
Top 40
45,387
(1.9)
(1.9)
0.1
Mexico
Mexbol
48,259
2.8
7.1
11.0
Indonesia
LQ45
923
6.0
13.0
13.9
Malaysia
KLCI
1,694
1.4
4.5
2.4
Thailand
SET 50
977
4.6
9.7
3.5
USA
Dow Jones
18,574
0.2
6.0
7.1
UK
FTSE
6,859
2.4
11.2
7.7
Japan
Nikkei
16,597
2.2
0.6
(19.0)
Germany
DAX
10,538
4.7
7.6
4.1
France
CAC
4,418
1.4
3.2
(1.9)
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Stock Watch
August 18, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY17E FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
Agri / Agri Chemical
Rallis
Neutral
222
-
4,314
1,937
2,164
13.3
14.3
9.0
11.0
24.7
20.2
4.3
3.8
18.4
19.8
2.2
2.0
United Phosphorus
Accumulate
642
684
27,512
15,176
17,604
18.5
18.5
37.4
44.6
17.2
14.4
3.4
2.8
21.4
21.2
1.8
1.5
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Ashok Leyland
Buy
87
111
24,716
22,407
26,022
10.6
10.6
5.2
6.4
16.7
13.5
3.8
3.2
23.6
24.7
1.2
1.0
Bajaj Auto
Neutral
2,933
-
84,868
25,093
27,891
19.5
19.2
143.9
162.5
20.4
18.1
5.7
4.9
30.3
29.4
2.9
2.5
Bharat Forge
Buy
846
875
19,696
7,726
8,713
20.5
21.2
35.3
42.7
24.0
19.8
4.4
4.0
18.9
20.1
2.2
1.9
Eicher Motors
Neutral
22,348
-
60,700
16,583
20,447
17.5
18.0
598.0
745.2
37.4
30.0
12.8
9.7
41.2
38.3
3.3
2.6
Gabriel India
Neutral
110
-
1,575
1,544
1,715
9.0
9.3
5.4
6.3
20.3
17.4
3.8
3.4
18.9
19.5
0.9
0.8
Hero Motocorp
Neutral
3,360
-
67,098
31,253
35,198
15.3
15.0
172.3
192.1
19.5
17.5
7.1
6.1
38.9
37.0
2.0
1.7
Jamna Auto Industries Neutral
234
-
1,867
1,486
1,620
9.8
9.9
15.0
17.2
15.6
13.6
3.4
2.9
21.8
21.3
1.1
1.0
L G Balakrishnan & Bros Neutral
462
-
725
1,302
1,432
11.6
11.9
43.7
53.0
10.6
8.7
1.5
1.4
13.8
14.2
0.7
0.6
Mahindra and Mahindra Neutral
1,450
-
90,049
46,534
53,077
11.6
11.7
67.3
78.1
21.5
18.6
3.5
3.1
15.4
15.8
1.9
1.6
Maruti
Neutral
4,891
-
147,740
69,186
82,217
14.7
14.4
198.5
241.4
24.6
20.3
4.8
3.9
20.2
20.0
1.8
1.5
Minda Industries
Neutral
1,120
-
1,777
2,728
3,042
9.0
9.1
68.2
86.2
16.4
13.0
3.7
3.0
23.8
24.3
0.7
0.6
Motherson Sumi
Neutral
334
-
44,219
45,896
53,687
7.8
8.3
13.0
16.1
25.6
20.8
8.3
6.6
34.7
35.4
1.1
0.9
Rane Brake Lining
Neutral
647
-
512
511
562
11.3
11.5
28.1
30.9
23.0
20.9
3.5
3.2
15.3
15.0
1.1
1.0
Setco Automotive
Neutral
44
-
587
741
837
13.0
13.0
15.2
17.0
2.9
2.6
0.5
0.4
15.8
16.3
1.3
1.2
Tata Motors
Neutral
510
-
147,320
300,209
338,549
8.9
8.4
42.7
54.3
12.0
9.4
1.9
1.6
15.6
17.2
0.6
0.5
TVS Motor
Accumulate
313
330
14,875
13,390
15,948
6.9
7.1
12.8
16.5
24.5
18.9
6.1
4.8
26.3
27.2
1.1
0.9
Amara Raja Batteries
Buy
928
1,076
15,844
5,717
6,733
18.7
18.9
38.4
48.9
24.2
19.0
6.0
4.9
25.3
24.8
2.5
2.0
Exide Industries
Neutral
176
-
14,969
7,439
8,307
15.0
15.0
8.1
9.3
21.7
18.9
3.0
2.7
14.3
16.7
1.6
1.4
Apollo Tyres
Accumulate
175
183
8,916
12,877
14,504
14.3
13.9
21.4
23.0
8.2
7.6
1.3
1.1
16.4
15.2
0.8
0.8
Ceat
Buy
886
1,119
3,585
7,524
8,624
13.0
12.7
131.1
144.3
6.8
6.1
1.2
1.1
19.8
18.6
0.5
0.5
JK Tyres
Neutral
109
-
2,472
7,455
8,056
15.0
15.0
21.8
24.5
5.0
4.5
1.0
0.9
22.8
21.3
0.4
0.3
Swaraj Engines
Neutral
1,141
-
1,417
660
810
15.2
16.4
54.5
72.8
20.9
15.7
6.5
5.9
31.5
39.2
1.9
1.5
Subros
Neutral
104
-
621
1,488
1,681
11.7
11.9
6.4
7.2
16.2
14.5
1.7
1.6
10.8
11.4
0.6
0.5
Indag Rubber
Neutral
170
-
447
286
326
19.8
16.8
11.7
13.3
14.6
12.8
2.5
2.3
17.8
17.1
1.3
1.1
Capital Goods
ACE
Neutral
43
-
424
709
814
4.1
4.6
1.4
2.1
30.6
20.4
1.3
1.2
4.4
6.0
0.8
0.7
BEML
Buy
1,022
1,157
4,256
3,451
4,055
6.3
9.2
31.4
57.9
32.6
17.7
2.0
1.8
6.3
10.9
1.3
1.1
Bharat Electronics
Accumulate
1,240
1,414
29,771
8,137
9,169
16.8
17.2
58.7
62.5
21.1
19.9
3.3
2.9
44.6
46.3
2.6
2.3
Stock Watch
August 18, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
Capital Goods
Voltas
Buy
368
407
12,170
6,511
7,514
7.9
8.7
12.9
16.3
28.5
22.6
5.1
4.5
16.7
18.5
1.5
1.3
BGR Energy
Neutral
114
-
820
16,567
33,848
6.0
5.6
7.8
5.9
14.6
19.3
0.8
0.8
4.7
4.2
0.2
0.1
BHEL
Neutral
138
-
33,740
28,797
34,742
-
2.8
2.3
6.9
59.9
20.0
1.0
1.0
1.3
4.8
0.8
0.5
Blue Star
Neutral
489
-
4,661
4,351
5,024
6.4
7.1
17.2
20.6
28.5
23.7
18.5
15.4
23.1
24.1
1.1
1.0
Crompton Greaves
Neutral
87
-
5,421
5,777
6,120
5.9
7.0
3.3
4.5
26.2
19.2
1.2
1.1
4.4
5.9
0.8
0.7
Greaves Cotton
Neutral
139
-
3,402
1,755
1,881
16.8
16.9
7.8
8.5
17.9
16.4
3.6
3.3
20.6
20.9
1.6
1.5
Inox Wind
Buy
189
286
4,191
5,605
6,267
15.7
16.4
24.8
30.0
7.6
6.3
2.1
1.6
25.9
24.4
0.9
0.8
KEC International
Neutral
135
-
3,478
9,294
10,186
7.9
8.1
9.9
11.9
13.7
11.4
2.0
1.7
15.6
16.3
0.6
0.6
Thermax
Neutral
856
-
10,197
5,421
5,940
7.3
7.3
25.7
30.2
33.3
28.3
4.0
3.7
12.2
13.1
1.7
1.6
VATech Wabag
Buy
585
681
3,186
3,136
3,845
8.9
9.1
26.0
35.9
22.5
16.3
2.8
2.4
13.4
15.9
0.9
0.7
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,675
-
31,447
11,225
13,172
13.2
16.9
44.5
75.5
37.6
22.2
3.6
3.3
11.2
14.2
2.8
2.4
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
269
-
41,808
9,350
10,979
18.2
22.5
5.8
9.5
46.5
28.4
3.9
3.5
10.2
12.5
4.4
3.7
India Cements
Neutral
124
-
3,814
4,364
4,997
18.5
19.2
7.9
11.3
15.7
11.0
1.1
1.1
8.0
8.5
1.6
1.4
JK Cement
Neutral
790
-
5,527
4,398
5,173
15.5
17.5
31.2
55.5
25.3
14.2
3.0
2.6
12.0
15.5
1.7
1.4
J K Lakshmi Cement
Neutral
445
-
5,236
2,913
3,412
14.5
19.5
7.5
22.5
59.3
19.8
3.7
3.1
12.5
18.0
2.3
1.9
Orient Cement
Neutral
166
-
3,392
2,114
2,558
18.5
20.5
8.1
11.3
20.4
14.7
3.0
2.6
9.0
14.0
2.2
1.7
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
3,701
-
101,557
25,768
30,385
21.0
23.5
111.0
160.0
33.3
23.1
4.3
3.7
13.5
15.8
4.0
3.3
Construction
ITNL
Buy
68
93
2,234
8,946
10,017
31.0
31.6
8.1
9.1
8.4
7.5
0.3
0.3
4.2
5.0
3.6
3.3
KNR Constructions
Neutral
699
-
1,965
1,210
1,595
15.4
16.0
33.9
52.1
20.6
13.4
3.2
2.7
13.6
18.0
1.4
1.0
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
1,502
1,700
139,988
67,665
77,249
10.7
11.5
57.3
71.2
26.2
21.1
2.4
2.3
12.6
14.3
2.2
1.9
Gujarat Pipavav Port
Neutral
176
-
8,504
705
788
52.2
51.7
5.0
5.6
35.2
31.4
3.5
3.1
11.2
11.2
11.3
9.7
MBL Infrastructures
Buy
123
285
511
2,797
3,405
14.7
15.4
21.0
34.8
5.9
3.5
0.6
0.5
11.0
16.2
0.8
0.8
Nagarjuna Const.
Neutral
83
-
4,598
8,842
9,775
9.1
8.8
5.3
6.4
15.6
12.9
1.2
1.1
8.2
9.1
0.6
0.6
PNC Infratech
Buy
116
647
2,967
2,350
2,904
13.4
13.7
48.0
42.0
2.4
2.8
0.5
0.4
16.8
13.2
1.3
1.1
Simplex Infra
Neutral
296
-
1,463
6,829
7,954
10.5
10.5
31.4
37.4
9.4
7.9
1.0
0.9
9.9
13.4
0.6
0.5
Power Mech Projects
Neutral
540
-
794
1,801
2,219
12.7
14.6
72.1
113.9
7.5
4.7
1.4
1.2
16.8
11.9
0.4
0.3
Sadbhav Engineering
Neutral
278
-
4,774
3,598
4,140
10.3
10.6
9.0
11.9
30.9
23.4
3.2
2.8
9.9
11.9
1.7
1.4
NBCC
Neutral
231
-
13,863
7,428
9,549
7.9
8.6
8.2
11.0
28.2
21.0
1.4
1.1
28.2
28.7
1.7
1.2
MEP Infra
Neutral
41
-
666
1,877
1,943
30.6
29.8
3.0
4.2
13.7
9.8
6.6
4.5
0.6
0.6
1.8
1.6
Stock Watch
August 18, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
Construction
SIPL
Neutral
96
-
3,385
1,036
1,252
65.5
66.2
(8.4)
(5.6)
3.6
4.1
(22.8)
(15.9)
11.6
9.6
Engineers India
Neutral
228
-
7,686
1,725
1,935
16.0
19.1
11.4
13.9
20.0
16.4
2.8
2.7
13.4
15.3
3.2
2.8
Financials
Axis Bank
Neutral
589
-
140,664
58,081
66,459
3.5
3.5
32.4
44.6
18.2
13.2
2.4
2.1
13.6
16.5
-
-
Bank of Baroda
Neutral
151
-
34,827
19,980
23,178
1.8
1.8
11.5
17.3
13.1
8.7
1.5
1.2
8.3
10.1
-
-
Canara Bank
Neutral
260
-
14,110
15,225
16,836
1.8
1.8
14.5
28.0
17.9
9.3
1.2
1.0
5.8
8.5
-
-
Dewan Housing Finance Buy
264
270
7,705
2,225
2,688
2.9
2.9
29.7
34.6
8.9
7.6
1.4
1.2
16.1
16.8
-
-
Equitas Holdings
Buy
175
235
5,876
939
1,281
11.7
11.5
5.8
8.2
30.2
21.4
2.6
2.3
10.9
11.5
-
-
Federal Bank
Neutral
64
-
11,022
9,353
10,623
2.9
2.9
4.4
5.8
14.6
11.1
1.4
1.2
9.5
11.0
-
-
HDFC
Neutral
1,365
-
215,865
11,475
13,450
3.4
3.4
45.3
52.5
30.1
26.0
5.8
5.1
20.2
20.5
-
-
HDFC Bank
Accumulate
1,234
1,350
312,455
46,097
55,433
4.5
4.5
58.4
68.0
21.1
18.2
3.7
3.1
18.8
18.6
-
-
ICICI Bank
Accumulate
247
254
143,852
39,029
45,903
3.3
3.3
16.7
16.3
14.8
15.2
1.8
1.7
10.1
12.4
-
-
LIC Housing Finance
Accumulate
548
582
27,658
3,712
4,293
2.6
2.5
39.0
46.0
14.1
11.9
2.6
2.3
19.9
20.1
-
-
Punjab Natl.Bank
Neutral
125
-
24,535
23,532
23,595
2.3
2.4
6.8
12.6
18.4
9.9
2.8
2.0
3.3
6.5
-
-
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
21
-
2,883
6,435
7,578
2.5
2.5
2.7
3.1
7.9
6.9
1.0
0.9
10.1
11.2
-
-
St Bk of India
Neutral
246
-
191,158
88,650
98,335
2.6
2.6
13.5
18.8
18.2
13.1
1.7
1.5
7.0
8.5
-
-
Union Bank
Neutral
132
-
9,074
13,450
14,925
2.3
2.3
25.5
34.5
5.2
3.8
0.8
0.6
7.5
10.2
-
-
Yes Bank
Neutral
1,308
-
55,064
8,978
11,281
3.3
3.4
74.0
90.0
17.7
14.5
3.4
2.8
17.0
17.2
-
-
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
1,113
-
106,797
17,128
18,978
16.8
16.4
19.1
20.7
58.3
53.8
20.3
19.1
34.8
35.5
6.2
5.6
Britannia
Neutral
3,335
-
40,013
9,795
10,940
14.1
14.1
80.3
93.0
41.5
35.9
17.1
13.2
41.2
-
3.4
3.0
Colgate
Neutral
972
-
26,442
4,605
5,249
22.8
22.8
25.2
28.5
38.6
34.1
26.1
23.3
64.8
66.8
5.5
4.8
Dabur India
Neutral
303
-
53,346
9,405
10,581
18.1
18.3
8.1
9.2
37.4
33.0
10.4
8.6
31.6
31.0
5.2
4.6
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
6,377
-
26,818
4,959
5,623
17.4
18.0
190.5
219.3
33.5
29.1
9.2
7.9
29.6
29.5
4.8
4.2
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
1,527
-
52,011
10,335
11,518
18.4
18.6
41.5
46.0
36.8
33.2
8.2
7.0
24.9
24.8
5.3
4.7
HUL
Neutral
914
-
197,736
35,252
38,495
17.6
17.4
20.4
21.9
44.7
41.7
36.8
32.2
82.2
77.3
5.4
5.0
ITC
Accumulate
253
283
305,452
40,059
44,439
39.0
39.2
9.1
10.1
27.8
25.1
7.6
6.7
27.2
26.5
7.1
6.4
Marico
Neutral
300
-
38,692
6,730
7,649
17.3
17.5
6.4
7.6
46.9
39.5
14.2
11.9
33.2
32.5
5.5
4.8
Nestle*
Neutral
6,711
-
64,708
9,393
10,507
22.2
22.3
106.8
121.8
62.8
55.1
22.1
19.9
34.8
36.7
6.8
6.0
Tata Global
Neutral
138
-
8,688
9,072
9,687
9.4
9.8
7.2
7.8
19.1
17.7
2.1
2.0
7.6
7.9
0.9
0.9
Procter & Gamble
Buy
6,767
7,369
21,966
2,939
3,342
23.2
23.0
146.2
163.7
46.3
41.3
103.6
99.4
25.3
23.5
6.6
5.7
Hygiene
Stock Watch
August 18, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY17E FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
IT
HCL Tech^
Buy
786
1,000
110,892
49,242
57,168
20.5
20.5
55.7
64.1
14.1
12.3
2.9
2.2
20.3
17.9
2.2
1.8
Infosys
Buy
1,033
1,370
237,366
69,934
79,025
27.5
27.5
64.8
72.0
16.0
14.4
3.5
3.2
22.0
22.3
3.0
2.6
TCS
Accumulate
2,624
3,004
517,021
121,684
136,286
27.3
27.3
135.0
150.1
19.4
17.5
6.5
5.9
33.2
33.9
4.1
3.6
Tech Mahindra
Buy
474
700
46,036
30,347
33,685
17.0
17.0
37.5
41.3
12.7
11.5
2.8
2.4
21.8
20.7
1.3
1.1
Wipro
Buy
529
680
130,639
51,631
55,822
21.7
17.9
35.9
36.9
14.7
14.3
3.1
2.8
19.0
18.1
2.3
2.1
Media
D B Corp
Neutral
410
-
7,539
2,187
2,329
27.4
28.2
18.9
21.0
21.7
19.5
4.6
3.9
23.7
23.1
3.2
2.9
HT Media
Neutral
78
-
1,813
2,673
2,891
13.2
13.8
7.2
8.5
10.8
9.2
0.8
0.8
7.8
8.3
0.3
0.2
Jagran Prakashan
Accumulate
187
205
6,113
2,355
2,635
28.0
28.0
9.9
10.8
18.9
17.3
3.8
3.3
21.7
21.7
2.6
2.3
Sun TV Network
Neutral
462
-
18,195
2,850
3,265
70.1
71.0
26.2
30.4
17.6
15.2
4.5
4.0
24.3
25.6
6.0
5.1
Hindustan Media
Neutral
272
-
1,996
1,016
1,138
21.5
21.5
23.3
25.8
11.7
10.6
1.9
1.7
16.2
15.8
1.3
1.1
Ventures
TV Today Network
Buy
304
363
1,816
637
743
27.5
27.5
18.4
21.4
16.6
14.2
2.9
2.5
17.4
17.2
3.8
3.1
Metals & Mining
Coal India
Neutral
348
-
219,683
84,638
94,297
21.4
22.3
24.5
27.1
14.2
12.8
5.9
5.6
42.6
46.0
1.9
1.7
Hind. Zinc
Neutral
223
-
94,309
14,252
18,465
55.9
48.3
15.8
21.5
14.1
10.4
2.3
2.0
17.0
20.7
6.2
4.8
Hindalco
Neutral
156
-
32,193
107,899
112,095
7.4
8.2
9.2
13.0
17.0
12.0
0.8
0.8
4.8
6.6
0.8
0.7
JSW Steel
Neutral
1,772
-
42,832
53,201
58,779
16.1
16.2
130.6
153.7
13.6
11.5
1.8
1.6
14.0
14.4
1.5
1.3
NMDC
Neutral
104
-
41,035
6,643
7,284
44.4
47.7
7.1
7.7
14.6
13.4
1.3
1.2
8.8
9.2
3.9
3.5
SAIL
Neutral
48
-
19,886
47,528
53,738
(0.7)
2.1
(1.9)
2.6
18.5
0.5
0.5
(1.6)
3.9
1.3
1.1
Vedanta
Neutral
171
-
50,726
71,744
81,944
19.2
21.7
13.4
20.1
12.8
8.5
1.1
1.0
8.4
11.3
1.1
0.8
Tata Steel
Neutral
391
-
38,009
121,374
121,856
7.2
8.4
18.6
34.3
21.0
11.4
1.3
1.2
6.1
10.1
0.9
0.9
Oil & Gas
Cairn India
Neutral
199
-
37,235
9,127
10,632
4.3
20.6
8.8
11.7
22.6
17.0
0.7
0.7
3.3
4.2
5.3
4.4
GAIL
Neutral
370
-
46,883
56,220
65,198
9.3
10.1
27.1
33.3
13.6
11.1
1.3
1.2
9.3
10.7
1.0
0.9
ONGC
Neutral
238
-
203,407
137,222
152,563
15.0
21.8
19.5
24.1
12.2
9.9
1.0
1.0
8.5
10.1
1.7
1.5
Petronet LNG
Neutral
321
-
24,038
-
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
Indian Oil Corp
Neutral
545
-
132,311
373,359
428,656
5.9
5.5
54.0
59.3
10.1
9.2
1.6
1.4
16.0
15.6
0.5
0.4
Reliance Industries
Neutral
1,014
-
328,784
301,963
358,039
12.1
12.6
87.7
101.7
11.6
10.0
1.2
1.1
10.7
11.3
1.5
1.3
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
647
-
12,189
3,483
4,083
20.2
21.4
24.3
30.4
26.6
21.3
6.1
4.8
25.5
25.3
3.4
2.8
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
747
877
43,733
15,720
18,078
23.7
23.7
41.4
47.3
18.1
15.8
4.7
3.7
29.6
26.1
3.0
2.6
Aventis*
Neutral
4,317
-
9,942
2,357
2,692
17.3
17.3
153.5
169.2
28.1
25.5
4.8
3.9
25.8
28.4
4.1
3.3
Cadila Healthcare
Accumulate
373
400
38,206
11,126
13,148
22.0
22.0
17.1
20.0
21.8
18.7
5.6
4.5
28.8
26.6
3.4
2.8
Stock Watch
August 18, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY17E FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
Pharmaceuticals
Cipla
Neutral
550
-
44,192
15,378
18,089
17.4
18.4
21.6
27.2
25.5
20.2
3.3
2.9
13.7
15.2
3.0
2.5
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
3,001
-
51,176
16,043
18,119
23.1
24.7
126.0
157.8
23.8
19.0
3.5
3.0
15.7
17.1
3.1
2.7
Dishman Pharma
Neutral
170
-
2,746
1,718
1,890
21.7
21.8
8.7
10.4
19.6
16.4
1.8
1.6
9.3
10.2
2.1
1.8
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
3,175
-
26,892
3,528
3,811
16.6
18.8
51.8
59.4
61.3
53.5
16.4
16.3
26.3
30.6
7.2
6.7
Indoco Remedies
Sell
307
225
2,829
1,112
1,289
18.2
18.2
13.2
15.6
23.3
19.7
4.1
3.5
19.2
19.2
2.7
2.3
Ipca labs
Buy
520
613
6,562
3,303
3,799
15.3
15.3
17.3
19.7
30.1
26.4
2.6
2.4
9.1
9.4
2.1
1.8
Lupin
Accumulate
1,595
1,809
71,922
15,912
18,644
26.4
26.7
58.1
69.3
27.5
23.0
5.3
4.4
21.4
20.9
4.8
3.9
Sun Pharma
Accumulate
785
944
188,901
31,129
35,258
30.0
30.9
28.0
32.8
28.0
23.9
4.3
3.6
18.7
18.9
6.1
5.2
Power
Tata Power
Neutral
78
-
21,083
36,916
39,557
17.4
27.1
5.1
6.3
15.3
12.4
1.3
1.2
9.0
10.3
1.5
1.4
NTPC
Neutral
162
-
133,205
86,605
95,545
17.5
20.8
11.8
13.4
13.7
12.1
1.4
1.3
10.5
11.1
2.9
2.8
Power Grid
Neutral
175
-
91,317
25,763
29,762
74.3
73.1
14.8
17.3
11.8
10.1
1.8
1.6
16.9
17.5
7.9
7.5
Real Estate
MLIFE
Buy
432
554
1,773
925
1,139
18.4
22.3
18.3
33.8
23.6
12.8
1.1
1.1
4.9
8.5
2.7
2.1
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
345
-
138,010
105,086
114,808
34.5
34.7
12.2
16.4
28.3
21.1
1.9
1.8
6.8
8.4
2.3
2.0
Idea Cellular
Neutral
93
-
33,632
40,133
43,731
37.2
37.1
6.4
6.5
14.6
14.4
1.2
1.1
8.2
7.6
2.0
1.7
zOthers
Abbott India
Neutral
4,661
-
9,905
3,153
3,583
14.1
14.4
152.2
182.7
30.6
25.5
150.4
128.4
25.6
26.1
2.9
2.5
Bajaj Electricals
Accumulate
249
299
2,519
5,351
6,098
5.7
5.9
12.4
15.7
20.2
15.8
2.9
2.6
14.4
16.1
0.5
0.4
Finolex Cables
Neutral
427
-
6,524
2,883
3,115
12.0
12.1
14.2
18.6
30.0
22.9
16.0
14.0
15.8
14.6
1.8
1.6
Goodyear India*
Buy
540
631
1,245
1,598
1,704
10.4
10.2
49.4
52.6
10.9
10.3
50.4
44.2
18.2
17.0
0.4
57.2
Hitachi
Neutral
1,408
-
3,828
2,081
2,433
8.8
8.9
33.4
39.9
42.2
35.3
34.0
28.3
22.1
21.4
1.8
1.5
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
284
-
5,146
1,440
2,052
11.5
13.0
8.5
10.0
33.4
28.4
8.1
7.5
18.6
19.3
3.9
2.7
MRF
Buy
36,574
45,575
15,512
-
0
-
-
-
-
-
-
Page Industries
Neutral
14,288
-
15,936
2,450
3,124
20.1
17.6
299.0
310.0
47.8
46.1
318.2
242.9
47.1
87.5
6.2
4.9
Relaxo Footwears
Neutral
465
-
5,587
2,085
2,469
9.2
8.2
7.6
8.0
61.6
58.6
23.9
20.4
17.9
18.8
2.8
2.4
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
1,070
1,347
1,003
1,799
2,040
11.6
11.7
104.9
122.4
10.2
8.7
1.7
1.4
16.4
16.4
0.8
0.7
Styrolution ABS India*
Neutral
555
-
976
1,440
1,537
9.2
9.0
40.6
42.6
13.7
13.0
34.9
31.7
12.3
11.6
0.7
0.6
TVS Srichakra
Buy
2,419
2,932
1,852
2,304
2,614
13.7
13.8
231.1
266.6
10.5
9.1
271.8
214.0
33.9
29.3
0.8
0.7
HSIL
Neutral
341
-
2,462
2,384
2,515
15.8
16.3
15.3
19.4
22.3
17.6
22.1
19.0
7.8
9.3
1.1
1.0
Kirloskar Engines India
Neutral
285
-
4,122
2,554
2,800
9.9
10.0
10.5
12.1
27.1
23.6
11.4
10.7
10.7
11.7
1.2
1.0
Ltd
M M Forgings
Neutral
413
-
499
546
608
20.4
20.7
41.3
48.7
10.0
8.5
56.6
50.1
16.6
17.0
0.8
0.7
Stock Watch
August 18, 2016
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( Čcr )
OPM(%)
EPS (Č)
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
(Č)
Price ( Č)
( Č cr )
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
FY17E
FY18E
zOthers
Banco Products (India) Neutral
212
-
1,519
1,353
1,471
12.3
12.4
14.5
16.3
14.7
13.0
20.2
18.2
14.5
14.6
1.0
112.1
Competent Automobiles Neutral
158
-
97
1,137
1,256
3.1
2.7
28.0
23.6
5.6
6.7
30.4
27.5
14.3
11.5
0.1
0.1
Nilkamal
Neutral
1,177
-
1,756
1,995
2,165
10.7
10.4
69.8
80.6
16.9
14.6
67.2
58.4
16.6
16.5
0.9
0.8
Visaka Industries
Neutral
155
-
245
1,051
1,138
10.3
10.4
21.0
23.1
7.4
6.7
19.8
18.6
9.0
9.2
0.5
0.5
Transport Corporation of
Neutral
346
-
2,646
2,671
2,911
8.5
8.8
13.9
15.7
24.9
22.1
3.4
3.0
13.7
13.8
1.1
1.0
India
Elecon Engineering
Accumulate
58
63
627
1,482
1,660
13.7
14.5
3.9
5.8
14.8
9.9
3.5
3.2
7.8
10.9
0.7
0.6
Surya Roshni
Buy
172
201
753
3,342
3,625
7.8
7.5
17.3
19.8
9.9
8.7
18.9
15.2
10.5
10.8
0.5
0.4
MT Educare
Neutral
130
-
517
366
417
17.7
18.2
9.4
10.8
13.9
12.0
3.1
2.7
22.2
22.3
1.5
1.3
Radico Khaitan
Buy
101
125
1,348
1,659
1,802
13.0
13.2
6.3
7.4
16.0
13.7
1.4
1.3
8.6
9.3
1.2
1.1
Garware Wall Ropes
Neutral
508
-
1,112
898
997
11.9
11.7
29.0
32.9
17.5
15.5
2.6
2.3
14.9
14.6
1.0
0.9
Wonderla Holidays
Neutral
404
-
2,280
287
355
38.0
40.0
11.3
14.2
35.7
28.4
5.1
4.5
21.4
23.9
7.6
6.1
Linc Pen & Plastics
Neutral
261
-
386
382
416
9.1
9.1
13.1
14.7
19.9
17.8
3.3
2.9
16.7
16.3
1.1
1.0
The Byke Hospitality
Neutral
161
-
646
287
384
20.5
20.5
7.6
10.7
21.2
15.1
4.4
3.6
20.7
23.5
2.3
1.7
Interglobe Aviation
Neutral
858
-
30,926
21,122
26,005
14.5
27.6
110.7
132.1
7.8
6.5
46.4
33.1
168.5
201.1
1.4
1.1
Coffee Day Enterprises
Neutral
238
-
4,904
2,964
3,260
20.5
21.2
4.7
8.0
-
29.8
2.8
2.5
5.5
8.5
2.1
1.8
Ltd
Navneet Education
Neutral
100
-
2,392
1,062
1,147
24.0
24.0
6.1
6.6
16.5
15.2
3.4
3.0
20.6
19.8
2.2
2.0
Navkar Corporation
Buy
193
265
2,753
408
612
42.9
42.3
6.8
11.5
28.5
16.8
2.0
1.8
6.9
10.5
8.1
5.4
UFO Moviez
Neutral
507
-
1,400
619
685
33.2
33.4
30.0
34.9
16.9
14.5
2.3
2.0
13.8
13.9
2.0
1.7
VRL Logistics
Neutral
291
-
2,654
1,902
2,119
16.7
16.6
14.6
16.8
20.0
17.3
4.4
3.8
21.9
22.2
1.6
1.4
Team Lease Serv.
Neutral
1,055
-
1,804
3,229
4,001
1.5
1.8
22.8
32.8
46.4
32.1
5.0
4.3
10.7
13.4
0.5
0.4
S H Kelkar & Co.
Neutral
298
-
4,307
1,036
1,160
15.1
15.0
6.1
7.2
48.8
41.5
5.2
4.8
10.7
11.5
3.4
3.0
Quick Heal
Neutral
239
-
1,671
408
495
27.3
27.0
7.7
8.8
30.8
27.1
2.9
2.9
9.3
10.6
3.7
3.1
Narayana Hrudaya
Neutral
305
-
6,233
1,873
2,166
11.5
11.7
2.6
4.0
115.3
76.9
7.1
6.4
6.1
8.3
3.6
3.1
Manpasand Bever.
Neutral
714
-
3,572
836
1,087
19.6
19.4
16.9
23.8
42.2
30.0
5.1
4.4
12.0
14.8
3.9
2.9
Parag Milk Foods
Neutral
318
-
2,676
1,919
2,231
9.3
9.6
9.5
12.9
33.7
24.6
5.2
4.3
15.5
17.5
1.5
1.3
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on August 17, 2016
Market Outlook
August 18, 2016
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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